AGP Executive Report

Oil Market Watch: Oil prices slid after Israel and Iran agreed to halt attacks for now, but analysts warn supply risks remain as Strait of Hormuz traffic is still not back to normal and OECD inventories are heading toward multi-decade lows, setting up potential price swings. Battery & Storage Boom: CATL expects battery storage to reach 50% of sales by 2030 as grids lean harder on wind and solar, while WLF Energy and Farasis Energy signed a strategic partnership to scale next-gen energy storage. Carbon Capture in the UK: Spirit Energy (Centrica) says its Morecambe Net Zero CCS project entered the NSTA “Assess Phase,” moving closer to permits to store about a billion tonnes of CO2. New Upstream Signals: QatarEnergy announced another offshore Namibia oil discovery (Merlin-1X) with light oil and limited associated gas, boosting confidence in the Orange Basin. Energy Transition Policy: Uzbekistan approved phased Zero Energy Building standards to cut gas dependency in public construction by 2040, with strict energy-efficiency rules and a roadmap starting this year. Fuel Prices at the Pump (US): GasBuddy reported average gas prices falling week-over-week in parts of Louisiana, alongside broader US declines in gasoline and diesel, though volatility tied to Middle East shipping risk persists.

Oil Markets & Geopolitics: Oman’s official crude price for August rose $2.49 to $93.38/bbl as Middle East tensions kept a supply-risk premium alive, even after Israel-Iran signaled a pause in attacks; Brent and WTI both climbed on renewed worries around the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping remains constrained. Shipping Disruption: A fire broke out on an oil tanker off Oman with 24 Indian crew safe, underscoring how quickly maritime incidents can add volatility to crude flows. EU Clean Power Support: The European Commission approved a €23bn Italian state-aid scheme to add 37.15 GW of renewables via long-term contracts for difference, aiming to help Italy hit its 2030 renewable target. Grid Resilience After Disasters: In the Philippines, Mindanao earthquake restoration is ongoing; some coal-plant units are expected back online starting Wednesday. Gas & Infrastructure Moves: New Zealand advanced plans for an LNG import facility to cover “dry-year” power risk, while India launched E85 fuel to cut oil imports via flex-fuel mobility. Energy Storage Push: Solis unveiled a broader storage portfolio at SNEC 2026, and India’s latest battery tender quietly shifts from 2-hour to 4-hour durations—signaling a move toward longer reliability. Digital Oilfield Modernisation: Oil India rolled out a digital wellhead monitoring system using industrial IoT and cloud tools to unify real-time data across dozens of sites. South Africa Power Market Reform (Opinion): A South African IPP argues electricity wheeling and storage are making offsite renewables more bankable by improving cost predictability and reliability.

Middle East Oil Shock: Fresh Israel-Iran exchanges pushed Brent and WTI higher, with Iran warning it may target regional energy infrastructure if attacks continue, keeping markets jittery around the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ Supply Call: OPEC+ agreed to raise July output by 188,000 bpd, aiming to support stability even as shipping and conflict risks cloud the outlook. Fuel Prices at Home: In the US, gasoline prices kept sliding in many areas even as global crude stayed volatile; local reports show some of the week’s lowest pump prices in multiple counties, while diesel remains higher in many places. Pipeline & Gas Exports (Africa): Algeria’s SONATRACH broke ground on its Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline section, reviving a corridor to move Nigerian gas toward Europe; Nigeria and Morocco also eye a definitive deal for the $25bn African Atlantic Gas Pipeline by end-2026. Grid & Storage Debate: Battery energy storage projects face local pushback in Vermont, even as developers argue they improve reliability and manage costs. Ukraine Power Reform: A new report says Ukraine’s wartime power survival depends on tariff and regulatory reform alongside rebuilding after major damage. US Policy & Courts: A Supreme Court decision revived a fight over Biden-era furnace rules, a reminder that natural gas policy remains a live political and legal front.

Middle East Oil Shock: Oil surged again after renewed Israeli strikes on Iran and Lebanon, with Brent jumping about $4 to near $97 and fears rising that the Strait of Hormuz could stay disrupted longer. Market Calm, Big Unknowns: Even as prices eased from March highs, analysts warn the “calm” is fragile because shipping risk and policy signals can change fast. OPEC+ Supply Plan: OPEC+ agreed to a fourth straight quota hike (+188,000 bpd for July), but the Strait disruption means the real market impact may be limited. Inflation Pressure: OECD headline inflation rose to 4.4% in April, while energy inflation hit 13.2%, feeding into broader cost pressures. Growth Hit: Fitch cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.4%, blaming the oil crisis, even as AI investment cushions parts of the economy. Energy Prices at Home: In India, domestic LPG prices rose by Rs 29 for a 14.2-kg cylinder, while energy stocks traded mixed as crude spiked. Regulation & Storage: Nigeria’s upstream regulators plan a single-window system to cut oil and gas fees; meanwhile, certified containerized battery storage and residential storage white papers point to faster deployment of grid and backup solutions. Energy Security Deals: DFC will back a $1.5b Indo-Pacific energy infrastructure platform focused on LNG and related assets.

Oil Market Shock: OPEC+ agreed to raise July output by about 188,000 bpd for the fourth straight month even as the Strait of Hormuz stays closed, a move analysts call largely symbolic because shipping remains constrained. Kuwait Budget Strain: Kuwait’s May 2026 oil barrel averaged about $119.8—far above budget assumptions—but the Hormuz closure leaves a near disconnect between headline prices and actual export revenue, complicating fiscal planning. US Fuel Prices at the Pump: GasBuddy data for the week ending May 30 shows persistent volatility across the US, with local lows like $4.25 premium in Okmulgee County and $3.76 regular in Hopkins County, while broader drivers cite Middle East shipping risk and refinery outages. Energy Affordability Debate: New Zealand’s Winter Energy Payment is buying less warmth as it hasn’t kept pace with energy prices, with energy hardship affecting roughly one third of households. Power Utility Politics: St. Petersburg, Florida voted to study replacing Duke Energy with a city-run utility as its franchise nears expiration. Clean Energy Investment: The IEA says global energy investment is shifting toward clean, with about $2.2T expected for clean versus $1.2T for oil, gas and coal. Data Centers & Grid Demand: AWS plans a major Indiana data center campus, with a reported $1.25B payment aimed at offsetting added electricity demand on local ratepayers.

Oil Markets: Oil prices slipped as traders saw US-Iran tensions easing, with Brent at $93.09 and WTI at $90.54, though the Strait of Hormuz risk still hangs over supply. LNG & Gas: Asia spot LNG rose on stronger China/India demand and supply disruption worries, while Europe’s Dutch TTF settled at $16. OPEC+ Watch: OPEC+ meets to consider higher quotas to cool prices, but analysts say Hormuz realities mean output pledges may not move the needle. Middle East Shipping Shock: Iran’s oil exports reportedly hit six-year lows amid US naval blockade, and a longer Hormuz closure could push up global food and fertiliser costs. India LPG Pressure: India raised domestic LPG by ₹29 to ₹942 per 14.2-kg cylinder, while the petroleum ministry says households still pay far below market-linked supply costs via upstream support and PMUY transfers. Energy Security Politics: Iran’s envoy said BRICS is shaping global energy security, while Azerbaijan’s SOCAR is positioning itself as a gas buffer around Israel’s shifting supply routes. Renewables Push: The EU floated tax cuts for clean energy and more support for electrification, and the UK’s Warm Homes plan targets free upgrades for millions to cut bills.

Energy Security Diplomacy: Malaysia’s PM Anwar Ibrahim says Petronas is in talks with Turkmenistan to secure access to a major gas field zone, with his personal involvement to speed negotiations ahead of a mid-June trip. Regional Oil Stockpiles: Japan plans a survey this summer of Southeast Asian public and private oil stockpiling systems, aiming to map readiness across the region. Macro Meets Oil: Fitch cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.4%, blaming an oil shock tied to US-Iran tensions that is squeezing consumption and raising business costs, even as AI and tech investment helps cushion the blow. Renewables Buildout: Zimbabwe’s Centragrid Solar Plant added 25MW to the grid, expanding supply reliability for multiple load centres after phased development from 2014 through full completion in 2024. Gas Supply Developments: Oil India reported gas in its third Andaman offshore exploratory well (Vijayapuram-3), boosting prospects for domestic production. Fuel Prices Watch (US): GasBuddy data for the week ending May 30 shows continued volatility tied to global oil risks, with localized lows reported across regular, midgrade, premium, E15/E85, and diesel markets. Oil Market Risk: Warnings persist that depleted global inventories could trigger another price shock if Strait of Hormuz tanker traffic remains hard to reopen.

Middle East Energy & Oil Prices: U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said lower pump prices hinge on a resolution with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, as oil markets react to Iran-related supply risks. U.S. Coal Push: Trump says $700M will go to build or refurbish coal power, using the Defense Production Act to restart and save plants, while he again attacks renewables. India Offshore Gas: Oil India reported a second natural gas discovery in the Andaman shallow offshore block, with Vijayapuram-3 confirming gas and prompting further sampling and appraisal. India Energy Security Plan: India’s Cabinet approved a ₹37,500 crore coal gasification push aimed at cutting import dependence, though economics and environmental concerns remain. Grid Reliability & Summer Demand: A PJM summer outage risk story highlights how heat and offline capacity can force emergency federal backup generation. Policy & Regulation: San Francisco sued the U.S. Department of Energy over grant conditions tied to DEI-related certifications. Renewables & Storage: Malaysia is studying an energy regulatory sandbox for 2027, while a 125 MW/500 MWh BESS project won a Letter of Award in Uttar Pradesh. Fuel Supply Disruptions: Circle K said it’s investigating reports of water-contaminated fuel at a Texas franchise station, and a separate Gas-X recall was issued over potential contamination.

Nuclear Milestone: The U.S. Energy Department says Antares Nuclear’s microreactor at Idaho National Lab reached “criticality,” a key step toward producing electricity within a few years. Grid Storage Push: Colorado officials broke ground on NextEra’s $141 million Weld Energy Center battery project, aimed at boosting reliability for nearby communities. Ukraine Energy Infrastructure Hit: Russian drone strikes damaged a gas station in Kherson, killing one and injuring five, with a fire reported. Iran Oil Pricing Twist: Iranian crude is slipping to discounts versus Brent for China-bound shipments as weaker demand from Chinese refiners offsets tighter supply from sanctions enforcement. Gas Prices Watch (US): The national regular gas average fell 17 cents to $4.22, while local reports show wide variation—Texas premium hit lows near $4.03 in Bell County, and diesel lows around $4.65 in Pike County. Renewables Under Pressure: Ireland’s High Court appointed provisional liquidators for Woodco Renewable Energy after a rescue plan relying on external investment failed.

Middle East Supply Disruption: Oman suspended crude oil loading at the Mina al Fahal terminal after an explosion near single-buoy mooring berths, reportedly linked to a suspected drone attack; traders later said some loadings resumed, but timing remains unclear. Oil Market Watch: Prices held steady after earlier swings, with Brent around $95 and WTI near $93, as stalled U.S.-Iran talks and Hormuz transit risks kept a geopolitical premium in place. Iran Sanctions Pressure: Iranian crude exports fell to a six-year low in May, with analysts citing the U.S. naval blockade and Strait of Hormuz disruption. India Macro & FX: The RBI trimmed its GDP growth forecast to 6.6% and raised inflation projections, pointing to higher crude costs; it also rolled out measures to attract foreign capital, helping the rupee rebound. Clean Energy & Grid: Inox Clean Energy agreed to buy Vena Energy India’s 6 GW renewables portfolio, while HiTHIUM unveiled an 8-hour long-duration storage system aimed at deeper renewable integration. Nuclear Buildout: Russia and Uzbekistan launched construction of Uzbekistan’s first nuclear power plant, using a hybrid Rosatom design. Local Energy Safety: A gas leak incident in the U.S. followed excavation damage to an underground line, with responders setting a safety perimeter.

AI + Data Centers: Schneider Electric says Malaysia’s next AI buildout must start with disciplined energy planning—site choice, electrical design, cooling, water management, and early access to renewables—so power stays stable as demand rises. Oil Shock Macro: Fitch Ratings warns global growth will slow further in 2026 as the US-Iran oil shock lifts inflation and squeezes demand, but says AI/IT investment is cushioning the blow, especially in Asia. Oil Market Outlook: OPEC’s Haitham Al-Ghais says it still sees robust oil demand growth of 1.2 mb/d in 2026 despite Middle East risks and Strait of Hormuz disruption. India-Venezuela Energy Ties: Modi met Venezuela’s interim president Rodriguez to expand cooperation, with India calling Venezuelan oil a major “opportunity” to support energy security. Gas Prices at the Pump (US): AAA reports the statewide average in Indiana at $3.55/gal, down week-over-week; GasBuddy spotlights local lows like $3.79 regular in Crawford County and $2.39 E85 in Matagorda County. Cybersecurity for Fuel Storage: US agencies warn attackers are targeting automatic tank gauge systems and urge owners to use strong passwords and keep devices off the internet. Energy Transition Governance (Nigeria): Nigeria’s energy commission signed MoUs with 15 partners to boost energy efficiency via innovation, research, and sustainable energy solutions. Serbia Gas Security: Serbia confirmed a three-month extension of Gazprom gas supplies and plans to expand underground storage capacity.

Energy & AI Policy: Malaysia’s PM Anwar Ibrahim backed Tenaga Nasional (TNB) to lead the energy transition and support AI and digital infrastructure, spotlighting ETCon26’s “Energy & AI” agenda. Geopolitics & Oil Supply: Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s St. Petersburg oil terminal and a warship near the city’s economic forum, raising disruption risk even as Israel-Lebanon ceasefire hopes briefly eased crude. Market Mood: Australia’s central bank said it’s monitoring how higher rates and the global energy shock are feeding into inflation and demand. Inflation Pressure: Bangladesh’s CPD warned fuel and transport price hikes are intensifying inflation and squeezing household purchasing power. Grid Rules vs Renewables: Reuters reports India’s tougher grid discipline for solar and wind from April 2027 could cut returns and deter investment, complicating the clean-energy push. Data Centers & Power Costs: Amazon plans a major Indiana data center campus near a power plant and will pay $1.25bn to offset energy cost impacts on local ratepayers. Gas & Power Deals: TransAlta agreed to buy two contracted Colorado gas-fired peaking plants for about $1bn, betting on flexible capacity demand from data centers. Oil & Gas Infrastructure: Saipem installed a gas extraction module at Libya’s El Bouri field to cut flaring and lift output toward 2 million cubic meters per day.

Middle East Energy Shock: Fresh strikes around the Strait of Hormuz keep oil prices elevated, with WTI rising to about $96/bbl as investors weigh renewed supply disruption risk. Fuel Tax Politics (US): Gas tax holidays are ending or being extended in different states—Georgia’s suspension expires, pushing prices up about 33 cents/gal, while Indiana extends its gas tax relief through July 7, saving drivers roughly 62 cents/gal. Grid & Gas Infrastructure (US): Columbia Gas begins a Hanover, Pennsylvania-area pipeline replacement project in June, with lane closures expected through year-end. Renewables Policy (India/Philippines): Tamil Nadu drafts renewable tariff rules for FY27-28 to FY31-32, while the Philippines’ House approves KALINGA, a time-bound oil-crisis response program. Nuclear & Transition Debate (UAE/Malaysia): IAEA chief tours the UAE’s Barakah plant, praising safety and transparency, while Malaysia’s energy leaders argue nuclear can complement renewables for stable baseload. Uranium Finance (Mauritania): Aura Energy advances talks for US-backed financing for its Tiris uranium project. Oil Security (Russia/Ukraine): Ukrainian drones hit a St. Petersburg oil terminal and nearby naval facilities ahead of Putin’s economic forum, disrupting airport operations.

Middle East Oil Shock: Oil prices pushed higher for a third straight day as US-Iran talks stalled and fresh Gulf missile activity raised supply fears, with Brent around $94.74 and WTI near $88.68—keeping markets jittery even as some diplomacy headlines circulate. Power & Grid Resilience: Emerson says Holy Cross Energy is using Ovation Green SCADA to monitor and optimize solar, wind and battery storage across four sites in Western Colorado, supporting reliability for ~45,000 members. Battery Storage Buildout (India): Advait Energy Transitions signed a BESS purchase agreement with GUVNL for a 150 MW/300 MWh standalone project in Gujarat, targeting revenues above INR 450 crore and completion within 18 months. Renewables Expansion (Australia): Australia’s home and utility-scale batteries are hitting record momentum under the Cheaper Home Batteries Program, with 12+ GWh installed capacity and strong wind/solar investment decisions in 2026. Energy Infrastructure Under Fire (Ukraine/Russia): Strikes reportedly hit gas infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia and a major Baltic oil terminal in St. Petersburg, underscoring how conflict risk is feeding into energy security concerns. Household Bills & Tariffs (Pakistan/UK/US): Pakistan’s energy minister admitted fixed charges in electricity bills have doubled; Ofgem’s July price-cap rise is prompting UK households to consider fixed tariffs; and US pump prices show mixed relief as crude swings with negotiations.

Oil & Gas Markets: Oil prices stayed volatile as Iran-US talks swung between optimism and fresh risk, while the IEA warned global oil inventories could hit critical lows ahead of peak summer demand. Strategic Reserves: The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to its lowest level since April 2024, nearing 1980s-era lows as emergency stocks are drawn down. Europe Sanctions: The EU is preparing a new sanctions package aimed at squeezing Russia’s oil revenues and keeping the current price cap in place. Gas Prices & Taxes (US): Georgia’s temporary gas tax relief is set to expire, adding about $0.33/gal, and US gas prices remain above $4 on average despite political promises of cheaper fuel. Energy Security & Transition: New Zealand is pushing bold energy reform as electricity prices rise and data-centre demand strains supply; Australia’s data-centre boom could lift household power bills sharply. Renewables & Power Projects: EDF and Masdar secured long-term power purchase deals for a California solar-plus-storage project, while Uzbekistan’s renewables attract backing from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Nuclear & Fusion: A German startup raised $240M to commercialize laser fusion after net-energy results, and North Carolina lawmakers moved to protect baseload power via nuclear requirements. Regional Diplomacy: Iran asked Japan to help rebuild war-damaged refineries in exchange for restoring shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil & Geopolitics: Oil stayed near $95 a barrel as Iran–U.S. talks and Strait of Hormuz reopening fears kept markets jumpy, with Brent and WTI still elevated after a sharp prior session. Gas Prices & Consumer Impact: Pump relief is showing up in parts of the U.S.—Michigan gas fell 27 cents week-on-week—while AAA warns prices could stay volatile through summer travel. Energy Security & Infrastructure: The UK faces growing calls for stronger physical protection of power grid assets as drone threats raise blackout concerns. Grid Management: Oriental Mindoro (Philippines) is pausing some government facilities to cut electricity use amid a local power shortage. Regional Energy Deals: SOCAR says Azerbaijan will keep expanding gas output and diversify exports, including new supply to Syria, while Oman and Libya signed an MoU to deepen oil, gas and renewables cooperation. Local Operations: SaskEnergy will flare natural gas near Wilkie for maintenance, with no expected impact on residential service. Policy & Cost of Living: Netherlands inflation jumped on higher energy costs, and Pakistan ordered earlier market closures in an austerity push tied to rising energy bills. Renewables & Storage: India’s push for 500 GW renewables by 2030 hinges on faster energy storage deployment, with a new report warning of bottlenecks. Safety Incidents: A gas leak in Canmore (Canada) triggered evacuations before repairs restored service.