AGP Executive Report

UK-EU Grid Build: A new UK–Germany power link, the Tarchon Interconnector, could land near Harwich, with a 760-km cable planned to move up to 1.8GW and supply about 1.9 million homes; public consultation runs July 3–Aug 13. Middle East Gas Relief: India has withdrawn most emergency natural gas supply curbs after LNG shipments resumed through the Strait of Hormuz following a ceasefire, easing March-era priority allocation rules. Oil Market Watch: OPEC+ is poised to approve another August output increase of about 188,000 bpd as Hormuz reopening improves export prospects, even as Iraq threatens to challenge quota limits. War-Driven Energy Risk: Ukraine struck Russia’s St Petersburg oil infrastructure with drones, adding to fuel-crisis pressure; separate reports also cite Trump’s phone call with Putin as Zelensky signals a “real prospect” of ending the war. Africa Refining Push: Nigeria’s NNPC says talks with Chinese partners to rehabilitate Port Harcourt and Warri refineries are in a detailed evaluation phase, while the Nigerian Navy uncovered an illegal fuel depot in Rivers State. Clean Energy Finance: MENA is seeing a surge in clean industry project financing momentum, with a report citing $642B in potential investment across clean fuels and industrial sectors.

Ukraine-Russia Energy War: Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s St Petersburg oil terminal and the Vysotsk Baltic port area, with Russian officials saying 72 drones were shot down; Kyiv frames it as “long-range sanctions” targeting revenue for Russia’s war, while Moscow downplays the impact. Oil Market Watch: Oil prices are hovering around $69–$72/bbl after the Strait of Hormuz shock, with analysts saying further declines could come unless OPEC intervenes again. UK Household Bills: British Gas, EDF and E.ON warn energy price caps may stay elevated through April 2027, pushing typical bills to roughly £1,661–£1,880 and raising fuel-poverty fears. India Energy Security: PM Narendra Modi says India weathered the West Asia energy crisis with timely decisions and diplomacy, while inaugurating Rajasthan’s mega integrated refinery-cum-petrochemical complex. Biofuel Push: India’s transport ministry is working toward up to 15% isobutanol blending in diesel to cut crude imports, with trials underway. Grid & Safety: Michigan’s Consumers Energy adds crews after a pre–July 4 storm; in Sumy, a Russian strike on a gas station injured three women, and in North Windham a crash caused a gas leak and evacuation.

Ukraine-Russia Energy War: Ukraine says it hit Russia’s Belgorod thermal power plant, triggering a fire and partial blackout, while also striking Baltic oil infrastructure near St. Petersburg and Kronstadt—moves Zelenskyy frames as disrupting Russian war revenues. Oil Refining Pressure: Kyiv claims its campaign has knocked out 42.74% of Russia’s refining capacity, with refineries and storage tanks repeatedly damaged and repair timelines delayed. Russia Drone Attacks: Russia reports large-scale drone activity and air-defense interceptions over the St. Petersburg/Leningrad region, alongside reported fires at major oil terminals. UK Renewables Bottlenecks: A visual explainer looks at what’s slowing Britain’s green power buildout despite faster approvals. India Clean Power Push: JSW starts a 2 MTPA steel plant in Andhra Pradesh tied to a 3,850 MW solar-wind captive project, while NHPC’s UP solar auction clears at INR 2.73/kWh. Grid & Storage Politics (US): Snoqualmie, Washington moves toward a moratorium as residents protest a proposed large battery site. Energy Security & Trade: Gulf oil exports jump in June as Strait of Hormuz flows recover, though still below pre-war levels; Iran warns tankers to follow its routes. Local Energy Incidents: Michigan storm outages leave thousands without power, and Tamil Nadu begins ammonia gas extraction after a deadly leak at a seafood export plant.

US Fuel Probe: The Justice Department urged state attorneys general to investigate whether companies are artificially inflating gas prices, saying crude declines don’t excuse wrongdoing and warning of antitrust and consumer-protection enforcement. Holiday Pump Prices: GasBuddy projects Fourth of July averages near $3.75 nationally, with prices still stinging in some states and localities. State-by-State Gas Watch: In Indiana, AAA data shows regular gas around $3.10, down about 18 cents over the week. Energy Demand Under Heat: A US heatwave is straining power grids and water supplies, putting pressure on AI data centre expansion as lawmakers debate whether growth is outpacing infrastructure. Renewables Build-Out: Aboitiz Power inaugurated a 92 MW San Manuel solar plant in Pangasinan, lifting its Pangasinan solar capacity to over 300 MW. Battery Storage Deal: Royal Vopak agreed to buy 79% of Green Energy Storage and made a final investment decision for a 200 MW/800 MWh battery project in the Netherlands. Oil Shock Fallout: Falling oil price expectations are renewing budget pressure on African crude exporters, with Nigeria’s reliance on oil-linked foreign exchange highlighted. Russia Supply Strain: A Russian refinery (Lukoil-NORSI) suspended operations again after a Ukrainian drone strike, underscoring ongoing disruption to fuel supply.

Canada-Philippines Energy Links: President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and PM Mark Carney signed a joint declaration of intent on energy and natural resources, plus labor, tourism and cultural MOUs, reinforcing Manila–Ottawa cooperation. Ukraine-Russia Energy Attacks: Ukraine struck Belgorod energy infrastructure, damaging substations and a thermal power plant and triggering electricity and water outages. Middle East LNG Pressure: Japan cut gas-fired generation and leaned more on coal as Strait of Hormuz disruptions tightened LNG supplies. Oil Market Mood: Oil prices were little changed ahead of the US holiday as traders weighed peace hopes against ongoing Hormuz uncertainty. Strait of Hormuz Shipping Rules: Iran warned tankers to use approved routes or face a forceful response, keeping global shipping risk elevated. Clean Fuels Deal: ACME and Mitsubishi Gas Chemical agreed on about 100,000 tonnes/year of green methanol for marine use in a deal valued around $1B. Solar Standards in China: China issued mandatory PV energy-consumption and efficiency standards taking effect Jan. 1, 2027. Africa Critical Minerals Reality Check: A McKinsey report says fewer than 1 in 10 critical-mineral projects in Africa have moved beyond feasibility despite huge reserves. Grid + Data Centers Debate: Power equipment stocks slid after India allowed more Chinese firms into critical power tenders, amid rising demand tied to data centers. India Biofuels Defense: India’s petroleum minister backed ethanol blending while citing fuel-supply stability and large under-recovery costs. Canada Pipeline Push: Pembina and partners advanced plans for a major Alberta-to-West Coast crude pipeline to expand Asian market access.

Oil Markets: Crude slid for a fourth straight week as Strait of Hormuz shipping reopened and tanker flows topped 10 million bpd, pushing WTI to about $68.6/bbl and wiping out much of the war premium. Iran Watch: Iran’s oil exports are stalling as tankers struggle to find buyers, with most cargoes still lacking clear destinations after US sanctions relief. US-Iran Diplomacy: JD Vance said the US MoU is meant to “refill” global oil supplies and stockpiles, with further steps tied to Iranian commitments. Grid & Renewables: India’s Green Energy Corridors won regulatory clarity as CERC approved transmission tariff adjustments for key 765 kV and 400 kV lines, aiming to cut renewable curtailment. Energy Storage: Aboitiz Power broke ground on a 60 MW (expandable to 120 MW) battery project in Cebu’s Visayas to stabilize island-linked grids. Policy & Affordability: Maryland expanded energy assistance for ~200,000 households; Indiana extended its gas tax holiday again through early August as prices soften. Safety & Disruption: Gas leaks triggered evacuations in Seattle and Indiana, while New York issued a heat-wave grid alert urging conservation.

Oil Markets: Oil prices slid for a third straight session as Qatar said US-Iran indirect talks on Strait of Hormuz issues showed “positive progress,” though no lasting peace is in sight; Brent and WTI both fell toward four-month lows, with traders also watching expectations for possible OPEC+ output hikes. Middle East Shipping Risk: Iran’s military command warned all Hormuz-bound tankers to use approved routes or face “forceful response,” keeping a geopolitical risk premium on the table. Ukraine Energy Attacks: Ukraine struck Russia’s Lukoil refinery in Kstovo (Nizhny Novgorod), damaging a primary crude distillation unit and sparking fire, as Kyiv continues targeting Russian refining capacity. Grid Flexibility & Storage: Germany’s Envision Group and Elements Green agreed on a 400 MW / 1,600 MWh battery project in Stadorf, while Romania advanced multiple energy-storage deals and financing, including EU-backed support. Corporate Moves: Vivo Energy completed its acquisition of TotalEnergies Marketing Jordan, bringing the Engen brand to Jordan. Safety & Infrastructure: A preliminary NTSB report said an unmarked gas line was struck before a fatal Dallas apartment explosion, and a separate East Meadow (NY) gas leak forced evacuations during shopping center renovations. Policy & Resilience: The Philippines is looking at building an oil reserve storage of at least one million barrels by late 2027 or early 2028 to blunt fuel shock impacts.

Mideast Oil Talks: Oil prices edged up as Iran declined direct talks with the US, keeping Strait of Hormuz supply risk in focus; shipping traffic through the corridor has rebounded, but inventories may take weeks to normalize. Ukraine Energy Security: Drones were spotted over Russia’s Omsk, targeting the country’s largest refinery, while Ukraine reported renewed strikes on Russian refineries and fuel logistics. Oil & Gas Deals: Reabold Resources unveiled a £6m all-share takeover of Union Jack Oil, while Viper Energy completed its $337m cash-and-stock acquisition of Riverbend mineral and royalty interests. New Gas Supply: Petronas announced a new offshore Suriname gas discovery in Block 52, with an FLNG-linked development path under consideration. Power Projects & Policy: ACWA signed a PPP and PPA for Mauritania’s first large-scale gas-fired IPP; Consumers Energy dropped plans for a Lima Township gas plant after local opposition. Grid & Clean Energy: Western US governors launched a task force to speed transmission permitting; New Zealand passed an offshore renewables bill to unlock wind, wave and tidal projects. Energy Costs & Relief: Albertans can apply for $100 energy rebate payouts; the Netherlands is relaunching a targeted energy emergency fund for low-income households. Nuclear Progress: Deployable Energy’s Unity reactor reached criticality at Idaho National Laboratory, advancing US advanced reactor milestones.

Solar Manufacturing Push: StarlinePS Enterprises will invest INR 160 crore in Celloraa Energy to build a 1.2 GW DCR-compliant solar cell plant in Surat, with plans to scale to 2.4 GW. Grid Reliability via Renewables: Econet Wireless Zimbabwe has started work on a 100 MW solar-plus-battery project to power its Harare operations and data centres, aiming to cut outages in a volatile electricity market. Storage-Ready Rules: Rajasthan’s regulator extended renewable tariff control to March 31, 2028 and updated rules for energy storage, green open access, and project performance norms. Fuel Price Relief in India: Nayara Energy cut petrol by ₹5/litre and diesel by ₹3/litre nationwide, citing easing global crude and related policy changes. Oil Market Watch (Iran-US): Oil prices edged up as Iran-US talks in Doha face hurdles, keeping Middle East supply risk in focus. Russia Fuel Crunch: Russia is seeing long queues and rationing at gas stations after strikes hit refining capacity, with the Kremlin even discussing importing refined products. Europe Power Resilience: A mid-year review says record clean generation helped shield Europe from gas-price shocks, but flexibility gaps remain—especially outside solar hours. UK Bill Pressure: Ofgem’s price cap rise is prompting millions of households to submit meter readings to avoid higher bills.

US Energy Policy & Prices: Indiana will reimburse local governments for revenue lost during the state gas tax holiday, with transfers from the state highway fund planned for July and payouts expected by Nov. 1. Retail Fuel Pressure: Ahead of the Fourth of July, AAA says Texas gas averages $3.29/gal—below the national average—while California’s July 1 excise tax increase adds pressure at the pump. Grid & Reliability Spending: SWEPCO kicked off a Texas Energy Fund–backed Marshall upgrade, targeting 700 miles of line work and improved storm resilience for about 193,000 customers. AI Power Demand: Bloom Energy shares jumped after Brookfield expanded financing for up to $25B in AI power projects, while Deloitte highlights a market shift toward buying operating “deliverable” power plants as data centers strain grids. New Build vs Delay: Duke Energy agreed to abandon a North Carolina offshore wind lease, with Interior reimbursing nearly $129M. Gas Market Signals: Bulgaria’s regulator set July natural gas at EUR 37.70/MWh, and Morgan Stanley cut oil forecasts on Hormuz traffic returning faster than expected. Clean Gas Growth: Waste Connections opened a nearly $100M renewable natural gas facility in Ontario, upgrading landfill gas into pipeline RNG. Local Energy Tech: Sol-Ark launched MySolArk v2, adding easier virtual power plant enrollment from its app.

Oil & Markets: The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdown continues, with crude stocks falling 5.5 million barrels to 325.7 million—the lowest since May 1983—under a plan to release 172 million barrels to offset inventory gaps after the Iran war. Middle East Truce Watch: The U.S. and Iran agreed to halt strikes and return to talks in Doha, with Strait of Hormuz safe passage a key focus, but analysts warn shipping and logistics won’t quickly normalize. UK Household Bills: Ofgem’s next energy price cap rise kicks in July 1, adding £221 and lifting a typical dual-fuel bill to about £1,862 a year; Cornwall Insight expects another hit in October. Retail Pressure in the U.S.: Trump again demanded gas retailers cut pump prices immediately, floating a target of $2.50 a gallon and warning against “speculation.” Energy Security: South Korea downgraded its crude oil security alert to “caution” after diversifying Middle East supply routes. Power & Grid: Ukraine extended evening blackout schedules amid heat and Russian attacks, while load shedding in Bangladesh eased after two power plants resumed. Renewables & Storage: India’s Suzlon won its first commercial order for the 5 MW S175 turbine (105 MW total) and China’s CGN brought a 100 MW concentrated solar power plant with molten-salt storage online in Jilin.

Middle East Shipping & Oil Prices: Middle East producers kept oil and LNG loadings moving through the Strait of Hormuz despite fresh attacks and US-Iran strikes, even as a US official said Washington and Tehran agreed to halt recent hostilities and restart talks—helping crude rebound from earlier lows. EU Energy Mix: Eurostat data for 2025 shows the EU leaning more on natural gas and renewables while coal and petroleum products keep falling, with renewables still the biggest electricity source. US Gas Market: Natural gas futures slid again on ample US supply and near-normal storage levels, even with hotter weather forecasts ahead. US Gas Prices for Drivers: Gasoline prices are easing ahead of the July 4 holiday, with AAA reporting the national average around $3.86 and state-by-state declines. Energy Efficiency Push: Governments at the IEA’s global energy efficiency conference pledged faster efficiency action to blunt price volatility, with a focus on buildings and data centres. Libya Gas Output: Eni and Libya’s NOC started production tied to the Sabratha Compression Project, aiming to sustain Bahr Essalam gas output and support power generation and exports to Italy. Rivers State Gas Pollution: Nigeria’s Rivers governor promised swift action after protests over gas leakage and pollution affecting the Bille community. Regulatory & Safety Watch: Iowa’s utilities commission opened a statewide review of Black Hills Energy pipeline safety after multiple issues were found in prior inspections. Offshore Wind Lease Exit: Duke Energy agreed to terminate a North Carolina offshore wind lease and redeploy about $129 million toward other generation and grid upgrades.

Oil & LNG Markets: Oil prices edged up after US-Iran agreed to halt renewed strikes, but analysts warned the Strait of Hormuz remains tense and shipping risk is still elevated, keeping supply recovery assumptions under pressure. Geopolitics & Shipping: Traffic through Hormuz stayed below normal after attacks on tankers, with insurers and war-risk premiums still a concern for owners. Energy Security (Alaska LNG): Alaska LNG signed a preliminary deal to sell gas to Chugach Electric, a key step toward an 800-mile gas line and potential LNG phase. Grid & Gas Supply (Malaysia/Sabah): Malaysia’s energy efficiency rebates open July 1 under NUR@PETRA, while Sabah Electricity introduced temporary power rationing after gas supply disruptions cut generation capacity. Batteries & Renewables Buildout: Lineage Power secured 3 GWh of LFP cells for BESS manufacturing; Envision Energy signed a 660MWh storage deal for South Africa’s Naos-1 solar-plus-storage project; Adani Green commissioned a 150 MW solar unit at Khavda, lifting operational renewables to 19,985.8 MW. Used Oil Circularity (India): Tata Motors and Castrol India launched a traceable used engine oil collection and re-refining pilot in Karnataka. Consumer Protection (Nigeria): Nigeria’s FCCPC said fuel prices haven’t fallen enough despite crude drops, warning marketers against exploitative pricing. Clean Energy Talent: UPES and IIT Guwahati launched an 18-month AI programme for clean energy and agritech startups.

Ukraine–Russia Energy War: Kyiv’s drone campaign set Russia’s Slavyansk oil refinery ablaze and hit another refinery, while Putin admitted fuel shortages and said Russia is drawing on reserves and may consider a diesel export ban. Oil Market & Shipping: Oil prices slid as tankers kept exiting the Strait of Hormuz and Aramco resumed loading at Ras Tanura after a long halt, but the region’s security risks remain a key driver. Consumer Pressure in Nigeria: Nigeria’s FCCPC warned fuel prices are not falling enough despite crude drops, flagging possible exploitation and threatening sanctions. UK Bills Jump: The UK energy price cap is set to rise, pushing typical household bills up by £221 a year from Wednesday. Clean Energy Deals: CATL expanded its CECEP partnership for next-gen solar and sodium-ion storage, while Idaho Power signed a long-term contract to buy output from Duke’s Jackpot Solar project. Grid Reliability in Asia: Bangladesh warned of near-3,000MW shortfall after plant outages, and Ukraine’s grid operator said no planned cuts Monday but urged evening power saving.

Ukraine–Russia Energy War: Ukraine said it hit two Russian oil refineries overnight in Krasnodar and Yaroslavl, with fires reported and Kyiv warning it will keep targeting fuel capacity. US Sanctions Pressure: The US reinstated strict enforcement of sanctions on Russian seaborne oil exports, ending earlier waivers and aiming to squeeze revenue from major producers. Middle East Supply Jitters: Rystad forecast Middle East oil supply should fully recover by end-2026, but the region’s disruptions are still feeding volatility. Pakistan–Iran Energy Talks: Pakistan is considering buying cheaper oil and gas from Iran as sanctions waivers and the Iran-US de-escalation open new logistics and banking options. Power & Gas Projects: Equinor and partners are investing about $412m to expand gas output at Norway’s Troll field (TWIN), while Zimbabwe’s first gas-to-power pilot is set to start powering a gold mine within 12–18 months. Accidents & Safety: Egypt reported an oil slick after a barge sank on Lake Nasser; Nigeria saw a major LPG explosion fire in Jigawa; and Tamil Nadu’s ammonia leak continues to raise migrant-worker death tolls. Prices Watch: Gasoline trends were mixed—Maryland fell week-on-week while South Korea’s average dipped under 2,000 won/liter—showing how quickly pump prices can shift with global crude and local inventories.

Energy security & grid reliability: Duke Energy says over 4,000 customers lost power in South Carolina’s Upstate during recent storms, underscoring how fast outages can disrupt industry and households. Industrial gas supply push: Bangladesh’s Commerce Minister says a “crash programme” will target gas shortages for factories, including adding an FSRU, after firms report years of idle capacity. Gas market moves: Nat-gas prices fell sharply as the July Nymex contract expired, with forecasts of hotter weather initially supporting demand. Oil price pressure: Crude slid toward about $70 a barrel as Strait of Hormuz traffic eased, while analysts warn further drops could strain oil-export budgets. Middle East risk & trade: Qatar Energy confirmed a major explosion at the Barzan Gas Supply Facility; a Nigerian worker injured in the blast has been discharged and is recovering. Climate & methane: The World Bank reports gas flaring rose again in 2025 to a six-year high, with flaring volumes climbing faster than oil output. Renewables flexibility: A study flags that AI-driven data centers could either raise or lower grid stress depending on whether they shift power use away from peak hours. Regional energy cooperation: Guyana and Jamaica signed an MoU to deepen energy security and logistics ties. Clean power investment: The World Bank approved $115m for Cambodia to expand electricity access and improve grid reliability and efficiency.