AGP Executive Report

US EPA Rollback: The Trump administration finalized the repeal of Biden-era greenhouse gas limits for coal and natural gas power plants, arguing it will cut costs by hundreds of billions while critics warn of clean-air and environmental-justice setbacks. Middle East Supply Shock: Oil prices stayed elevated as Saudi pipeline disruptions and Red Sea risks intensified, with satellite imagery showing multiple larger oil slicks in the Strait of Hormuz area and fears of further leakage. G20 Energy Talks: The US kicked off G20 energy meetings in Houston focused on “energy abundance,” even as Iran-war disruptions keep global fuel markets jittery and Europe struggles with winter gas storage. Nuclear Policy Push: A US House hearing advanced the idea of “nuclear lifecycle innovation campuses” to store, recycle and manage spent fuel, aiming to strengthen the domestic nuclear fuel cycle. Ukraine Energy Support: Zelenskyy met Japan’s lower-house speaker to discuss continued energy support for Ukraine. Affordability at Home: New York launched an enrollment push for its Energy Affordability Program, targeting millions of eligible households not yet receiving credits. Oil & Gas Developments: Guyana is projected to earn about US$5.9B from profit oil this year as production ramps up, while Alaska’s Cook Inlet saw new natural gas development progress from BlueCrest.

Oil Market Shock: Oil prices pushed above $106 a barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remains under pressure and Saudi supply worries grow, with the East-West pipeline offline after attacks and fresh Red Sea strikes adding to the squeeze. Shipping & Spill Risk: Greenpeace says satellite images show multiple larger oil slicks spreading near Iran and Oman, raising concerns about tanker damage and further leakage in the Hormuz area. Energy Infrastructure & Safety: An attacked oil tanker off Oman (EL GAIA) was towed to port after an engine-room fire; 23 crew were evacuated and two remain missing. Geopolitics & Prices: The Kremlin welcomed Trump’s proposed Russia-Ukraine energy truce but stressed sanctions removal and safe shipping as conditions, while Ukraine signaled openness only to reciprocal steps. Markets & Rates: Surging crude helped drive US 10-year Treasury yields to a 19-year high near 5.0%, tightening financial conditions and weighing on global stocks. Regional Energy Moves: Libya targets raising gas output to 4 bcf/d in 3–5 years, while Kazakhstan is exploring using associated petroleum gas for power at oil fields to cut flaring and support digital mining. Policy & Climate: The US EPA’s rollback of power-plant greenhouse gas limits continues to dominate energy policy headlines.

Geopolitical Energy Truce: Trump says Russia and Ukraine agreed not to target each other’s energy infrastructure, while Zelensky calls it a potential first step toward peace—though both sides have recently hit oil and fuel assets, keeping diesel and broader fuel-price pressure in focus. Middle East Supply Shock: Saudi Arabia seeks to boost Strait of Hormuz oil flows after drone attacks forced its East-West pipeline to suspend operations for weeks; markets are watching for tighter supply as Houthis expand attacks and shipping risk rises. Oil Prices: Crude stays above $100/bbl as pipeline damage and Hormuz uncertainty feed inflation fears. US Power Deregulation: The EPA finalized repeal of Biden-era greenhouse gas limits for power plants, a major deregulatory move praised by North Dakota leaders. Fuel Prices on the Ground: US gas prices eased in recent reporting, but diesel remains elevated, with GasBuddy showing localized lows and ongoing volatility. Policy & Consumer Relief: New York plans energy rebate checks starting Sept. 21 as households feel the hit from higher fuel costs. Energy Markets & Investment: Family offices and investors are increasingly eyeing oil-and-gas infrastructure as a longer-term bet amid the AI-driven demand outlook.

Middle East Oil Shock: Oil jumped above $108 and neared $110 after Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline following drone attacks, raising fears of a supply hit of up to ~4% and pushing diesel to record highs as Hormuz-area shipping risks persist. Market & Inflation Spillover: The surge lifted the dollar to a two-week high and rattled equities amid fresh bets on a Fed rate hike, while gas prices in Europe also spiked (TTF futures above $1,000/1,000 m³) and storage stayed far below seasonal norms. Policy Pivot in the US: The EPA is expected to remove limits on climate pollution from coal and gas power plants, completing a rollback of prior rules and adding to the debate over future power-sector emissions. Energy Security on the Ground: Iraq’s PM sought French support to ease pressure on oil exports tied to the Hormuz crisis, while Jordan’s Aqaba faced an ammonia leak injuring 11–14 people during maintenance. Affordability Measures: New York will mail energy rebate checks up to $200 to 8.2 million households starting Sept. 21 as pump prices climb. Africa Refining Push: Nigeria’s Aliko Dangote launched an IPO targeting $1.6B to expand his 700,000 bpd refinery toward 1.4M bpd by 2028.

Middle East Supply Shock: Fresh strikes on Saudi Arabia and a vessel hit in the Strait of Hormuz are pushing oil higher again, with Brent back above $100 (around $108) and WTI near $103 as traders price renewed disruption risk. LNG Cost Pressure: A US$7B LNG bill is forcing developing Asian buyers to rethink reliance on spot cargoes after Hormuz-linked supply losses, raising costs and nudging some toward crude demand. US Policy Shift: The EPA is poised to repeal carbon pollution standards for coal- and gas-fired power plants, a major climate rollback that could reshape power-sector compliance costs. Asia Grid Stress: Bangladesh’s power crisis is framed as a gas-fuel problem, with load shedding exceeding 3,500 MW during July–August amid LNG and domestic gas shortfalls. Fertilizer Output Watch: Chattogram Urea Fertilizer Limited says urea production will resume after gas supply normalization, with repairs still needed. US Fuel Bills: In the US, pump prices remain volatile post–Labor Day, with AAA citing elevated crude-linked costs and low inventories keeping prices high.

Middle East Supply Shock: Oil prices stayed above $100 after US strikes on Iranian tankers, while traders warned Saudi’s east-west pipeline outage could cut up to 4% of global supply unless pumping resumes within days. Shipping & Security: Attacks around the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea routes are forcing rerouting and raising tanker rates, with new Hormuz route talks reported between Iran and Oman. Ukraine Fuel Infrastructure: Russia-Ukraine fighting is hitting energy nodes too—Ukrainian strikes damaged Russian refineries (Slavyansk-EKO, TANECO) and even a gas station near the Poland border; Ukraine is also testing drone early-warning software for gas stations. Energy Costs & Policy: Pakistan plans to present an IMF-backed three-year plan to retire Rs3.6tr gas-sector circular debt, while PM Shehbaz announced a Rs100/litre petrol subsidy for motorcycles and small cars. Local Impacts: Gaza hospitals warned generator oil shortages could shut down power; Syria temporarily raised fuel and cooking gas prices amid higher import costs. BRICS Energy Stance: BRICS leaders backed stable energy flows and opposed unilateral energy sanctions, while reaffirming fossil fuels’ role for emerging economies.

Middle East Supply Shock: Saudi Arabia shut its East-West oil pipeline after drone attacks tied to Iraq, cutting a key route that has been moving about 4–5% of global supply; satellite images showed smoke and officials said injuries and damage were being assessed. Iraq Pushes Back: Iraq seized a drone-launching platform inside its territory used in the attack and said investigations are ongoing, while the prime minister dismissed a commander tied to the incident. Oil Price Pressure: Traders and producers are bracing for a longer US-Iran standoff, with diesel and gasoline costs rising and markets watching chokepoints like Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb. Europe Gas Cost Politics: A Russian investment chief warned European gas prices could climb toward $1,500 per 1,000 cubic meters, blaming “globalist” policy failures. Iraq Energy Expansion: Iraq signed a 25-year deal to ramp output at the Ajeel oil field, targeting gas up to 300 million standard cubic feet per day and crude up to 40,000 bpd. Local Impacts: Milwaukee residents reported diesel spikes hitting $5.94/gal, with knock-on effects for groceries and transport. Energy Transition Watch: China set a 70% EV share target for passenger car sales by 2030, accelerating demand erosion for road fuels. Infrastructure & Safety: Ukraine held an emergency meeting over intensified attacks on gas stations, including plans to track drones and add shelters. Oil & Environment: A Gulf of Oman spill linked to tanker attacks doubled to about 400 sq km, threatening protected areas off Oman and Iran.

Middle East Oil Shock: Saudi Arabia shut its critical East-West pipeline after drone attacks blamed on Iraq, with injuries reported and pumping halted as a precaution—another blow to routes already strained by Red Sea and Hormuz risks, pushing Brent back above $100 and keeping diesel prices elevated. Supply Chain & Market Pressure: Oil prices eased slightly on reports of possible interim Hormuz shipping talks, but markets remain jumpy as tanker disruptions and constrained flows keep volatility high. Policy & Regulation: A ProPublica report says Trump’s EPA is poised to loosen methane rules for low-producing “stripper wells,” a move that could cut inspections and upgrades while raising pollution concerns. Energy Security Diplomacy: BRICS backed a diversified energy mix and “just, orderly” transitions while stressing stable markets and protection of critical infrastructure; leaders also discussed broader energy cooperation with Gulf partners. Grid & Storage Moves: China’s world-scale salt-cavern compressed air storage project completed full-unit start-up tests, while India’s NTPC invited proposals for a sodium-ion battery storage pilot. Humanitarian Fallout: In Gaza, hospitals are rationing electricity as siege-linked shortages of generator fuel and spare parts worsen, with MSF warning of deliberate attrition.

Red Sea Supply Shock: Saudi Arabia shut its East–West crude pipeline after drone attacks from Iraq, temporarily closing the line that helps bypass the Strait of Hormuz; satellite reports suggest damage and Riyadh says it won’t retaliate for now while Iraq investigates. Oil Price Pressure: With Strait of Hormuz traffic still constrained, Brent pushed above $107 and U.S. diesel hit record levels near $6 a gallon, feeding fresh inflation worries. Regional Escalation: Iran-aligned Houthis expanded control in Yemen, raising fears of a second chokepoint at Bab el-Mandeb and more disruptions to global shipping. U.S. Policy Response: The White House is weighing using the Defense Production Act to expand U.S. refining capacity, with officials reportedly favoring upgrades to existing plants over building new ones. Humanitarian Fallout: In Gaza, MSF reports hospitals are rationing electricity as siege-linked shortages of generator fuel and spare parts worsen, with engine-oil prices soaring. Energy Transition Watch: The IEA says higher gas prices are pushing some regions back toward coal generation, lifting demand across Europe and parts of Asia.

Middle East Oil Shock: The IEA cut its 2026 oil demand outlook, warning the US-Iran standoff and renewed attacks on shipping lanes are tightening supplies and pushing prices higher, with Gulf output still disrupted and a full recovery pushed to 2027. Red Sea Disruption: Oil stayed near/above $100 as Houthi moves—seizing Mokha and targeting Saudi-linked infrastructure—raised fears for Red Sea and Hormuz-linked flows. Refining Pressure: The IEA also flagged damage to Russian refining capacity from Ukraine drone strikes, worsening the outlook for middle distillates and feedstocks. Inflation & Pump Prices: In the US, consumer inflation stayed elevated in August as energy costs rose; gasoline averaged about $4.27 nationally (+13 cents week-on-week) while diesel hit record highs. UK Energy Bills Politics: UK groups urged scrapping “hidden taxes” on energy bills, arguing levies are inflating costs for households and businesses. Grid & Power Projects: OG&E’s Horseshoe Lake Unit 11 gas turbine is ready for service six months early, while Maryland faces rising electricity bills and warnings about reliability risks. Regional Energy Deals: Azerbaijan and Türkiye kicked off their 5th energy forum in Baku, with talks spanning pipelines, power links, and a push to add AI and digital transformation to cooperation.

Middle East Oil Shock: Oil surged past $100 as Iran conflict fears deepened, with shipping attacks and Red Sea/Hormuz risks keeping markets tense and raising odds of broader inflation. Market & Rates Spillover: U.S. producer prices rose in August, lifting energy costs and reinforcing Federal Reserve rate-hike bets; global stocks slid as bond yields climbed. Power Demand Pressure: Ireland’s energy minister defended data centers, while Ireland’s regulator floated a plan for discounted network tariffs in exchange for accepting intermittent supply during gas stress. Grid Stress & Bills: Maryland electricity costs jumped 50.9% over five years amid decarbonization-driven generation shifts and data center demand; utilities warn of possible reliability problems by 2027. Utility Response: Los Angeles’ LADWP urged heat-driven conservation and deployed crews for outages. Deal Watch: Shell agreed to sell Rhode Island’s gas-fired RISEC to Constellation and buy Pennsylvania’s Hunlock Creek plant, expanding in PJM. Venezuela Investment Politics: A U.S. energy push tied to wartime market moves is linked to renewed investment talks in Venezuela, while a smaller Cuba energy deal reportedly collapsed over political demands. Local Fuel Snapshot: GasBuddy reports show many U.S. regions seeing lower pump prices week-over-week, even as crude volatility remains the main driver.

Oil Shock Watch: Brent pushed back above $100 and even $103 as renewed US-Iran tensions and attacks near the Strait of Hormuz raised fears for tanker flows and tighter supplies, with analysts warning the rally could keep inflation pressure alive. Central Banking: The European Central Bank lifted rates to 2.5% to cool energy-driven inflation, citing the Middle East conflict as keeping prices above target longer. Market Spillover: Asia and Europe stocks slid as oil’s jump revived recession and rate-hike worries, while local markets like Sri Lanka’s CSE also fell on risk-off sentiment tied to higher import costs. Gas Prices at Home: Gas prices surged again in the US, hitting record levels in places like San Diego as crude strength fed through to retail fuel. Power & Transition Projects: Sofia Airport in Bulgaria started building a 5 MW solar plant for its own use, while Google announced a €13bn Finland AI investment that also includes clean energy support. Policy & Regulation: Nigeria warned flare-site permit holders they could lose licenses if progress stalls, and Bulgaria’s ombudsman proposed changes to heat cost allocation rules to protect low-income households. New Supply Outlook: OPEC trimmed 2026 oil demand growth but raised its forecast for US oil and condensate output growth. Africa Energy Deals: Senegal plans to offer 109 oil and gas blocks to investors, and Namibia’s green fertiliser project secured funding to use solar/wind and green hydrogen for low-carbon ammonia and fertiliser.

Middle East Energy Shock: The U.S. says it destroyed five Iranian crude-oil tankers after Iran fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. warship; Iran says it then attacked ships near the Strait of Hormuz and hit U.S. bases in Jordan, with the Strait reportedly closed—pushing Brent above $100 and reviving inflation fears. Markets & Rates: Oil’s jump lifted Treasury yields (2-year near 4.42%, 10-year around 4.81%), rattling stocks globally and weighing on the ASX outlook. Russia Energy Under Fire: Ukraine carried out its deepest drone strikes into Russia’s gas hinterland, hitting condensate facilities in Novy Urengoy and Purovsky. Fuel Prices at the Pump: In the U.S., AAA reports regular gas in Florida pushing past $4; AAA links pump prices to crude, while local GasBuddy checks show wide regional swings. Policy & Projects: The U.S. Third Circuit reversed a key NJ permit for Williams’ NESE gas pipeline; Nigeria’s regulator warned flare-gas sites could lose permits if not developed within a year. Green & Power Deals: Azerbaijan and China discussed expanding renewable cooperation, while Oklahoma’s GRDA opened a new ~500MW gas unit to meet rising demand.

Oil Market Shock: Brent surged back above $100 a barrel as US-Iran tensions escalated, with CENTCOM saying it destroyed five Iranian oil tankers after missile attacks on a warship, while Iran claimed strikes on US bases and vessels—fueling fresh Strait of Hormuz Risk fears and pushing global prices higher. Gas Tightness: Europe’s gas storage climbed to only 67% full (lowest for this time since 2011), while European hub prices jumped toward late-2022 levels, as winter supply worries and LNG demand pressure tightened the market. Inflation Spillover: China’s August inflation picked up, with energy prices driving higher gasoline costs, and Malaysia’s ringgit and markets stayed cautious as crude hit the psychological $100 mark. Grid & Storage Buildout: Malaysia’s TNB Genco is advancing a 595MW floating solar plus 1,190MWh battery project for 2028, while SP Energy Networks in the UK is rolling out Tual’s battery-buffered PowerUp EV chargers to keep fleet charging resilient. Renewables Pipeline (India): NLC India’s renewables arm won a 200MW wind award via SJVN’s auction, with a 25-year PPA and fast commissioning timeline. Nuclear & Policy: Eagle Nuclear Energy hired for government affairs to support domestic uranium and advanced nuclear goals, as Europe and others debate winter supply security and energy policy tradeoffs.

Middle East Oil Shock: Brent neared $99 a barrel as the U.S. struck five Iran-linked crude tankers after Iran’s ballistic-missile attempts on a U.S. warship; Kharg Island and Gulf of Oman were hit, raising fears for shipping through Hormuz and pushing wholesale gas higher. Saudi Energy Risk: Separate Houthi attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure reportedly paused operations and injured 73, adding to the supply-risk premium. U.S. Fuel Prices Watch: Despite some easing in parts of the U.S., local reports show diesel still around the mid-$5 range and E85/E15 prices varying widely by county, with volatility tied to refinery strain and Middle East disruptions. U.S. Nuclear Policy: House Energy and Commerce chairmen announced a Sept. 15 hearing on nuclear spent fuel policy and “lifecycle innovation campuses” to support advanced reactors and fuel-cycle activities. Pakistan Industry Pressure: Karachi’s SITE industrialists warned daily petroleum price revisions are squeezing costs and could force closures, urging a steadier 15-day pricing cycle. Clean Fuel Incentives: The IRS issued guidance for the 45Z clean fuel tax credit, clarifying how qualifying farm practices can boost value for biofuel producers. Grid & Power Projects: NextEra outlined a proposed $13B, 3.75GW gas power plant in Fayette County, while Consumers Energy extended Michigan hydro dam sale talks by 60 days.

Oil Market Shock: Brent pushed toward $100 as Yemen’s Houthis struck Saudi energy facilities, halting some operations and lifting crude risk premiums; analysts warn the Hormuz disruption plus refinery outages and inventory draws could keep prices in a wide $95–$110 band, with upside scenarios near $120–$130. Geopolitics & Markets: Iran warned of strikes on US oil companies, while Qatar pledged to prioritize China’s energy supply and protect Hormuz shipping; the Middle East flare-up also weighed on global stocks and lifted inflation worries. Energy Costs at the Pump: US Labor Day gas prices hit records (AAA: regular above $4; San Diego at $5.95), with Michigan averaging $4.03 after a small weekly dip. US–Venezuela Resources: The Trump administration is seeking more US access to Venezuela’s minerals alongside oil, potentially via a critical-minerals executive order. Grid, Storage & Renewables: Qualitas Energy agreed to buy Cero Generation’s 5.8GW European solar+storage platform; Malaysia is studying nuclear preparedness while planning more gas capacity by 2032; and Zeo Energy will co-develop long-duration storage with Fulcrum for gas-backed projects. Data Centers Demand: Fleet seeks Nevada approval for two methane power plants for data centers, while SGC Energy and Vertiv plan an AI data center with integrated power/cooling.