AGP Executive Report

Middle East Escalation: The U.S. and Israel are weighing one of the harshest strike campaigns yet on Iran’s energy infrastructure, with action possibly starting over the weekend, while the final go-ahead is still pending—raising fresh shipping and price risks. Oil Market Volatility: Oil prices swung on Friday and ended July with the biggest monthly gains since March, as reports of tanker disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz kept traders nervous. Gas Prices at the Pump: In the U.S., drivers are paying more for gasoline and diesel as oil-linked costs rise, while major oil firms report sharply higher profits. Nuclear Cooling Crisis: Hungary may shut down its Paks nuclear plant for the first time in 44 years after record-low Danube water levels disrupt cooling, potentially keeping it offline for weeks. Grid Flexibility in Europe: Engie says it’s ready to bid on gas-plant capacity tenders in Germany, the Netherlands and Spain, but only if terms are right. Renewables Financing: India’s Avaada secured about $1.3B financing for a 2.15 GW renewable portfolio, backed by major lenders.

Oil & Gas Markets: Oil slipped as shipping flows improved even as Middle East tensions lingered, with Brent down about 1% to the high-$80s and WTI also easing; analysts said traders are increasingly watching chokepoint traffic through Bab el-Mandeb and Strait of Hormuz. Strategic Reserves: South Africa unveiled a major plan to build strategic petroleum stocks (60 days, aiming for 90), while India is expanding emergency storage via a new Mangalore reserve. Energy Security Shock: Hungary activated contingency steps after record-low Danube water levels put the Paks nuclear plant at risk of shutdown within days. Renewables & Storage: India’s Avaada secured about $1.3bn for a 2.15 GW renewables portfolio; Tata Power Renewable Energy started an 800 MW solar-wind project with a 25 MW/50 MWh battery; Eku Energy acquired a 300 MW/600 MWh Didcot BESS for UK grid connection. Policy & Politics: BP launched moves to sell its North Sea business; the Philippines faced a solar-contract probe tied to alleged “ghost electricity.” Geopolitics on Energy Infrastructure: Ukraine drone strikes hit Russian fuel and logistics sites in Volgograd, underscoring how energy assets remain targets.

Middle East Shipping Security: Saudi Arabia backed a multinational maritime defense coalition to protect Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb sea lanes as drone and missile threats target energy tankers and infrastructure. Oil Market Volatility: Caspian Pipeline Consortium suspended loading again after tanker strikes near Novorossiysk, underscoring how attacks keep disrupting crude flows. Regional Gas Supply: Bosnia approved the BiH-Croatia South Gas Interconnection to diversify away from higher Gazprom prices, with a 200+ km pipeline and LNG links via Krk. EU Energy Policy: Portugal approved a 33% temporary windfall tax on excess oil profits, with proceeds aimed at households and energy-efficiency and decarbonization. China Power Shift: China’s renewables topped 40% of electricity generation in H1 while coal fell below half, marking a major clean-energy milestone. Electricity Pricing Debate: A new analysis argues cost-reflective tariffs often miss broader “true” power costs, while energy efficiency can help affordability and security. Local Energy Costs & Safety: Maine highlights the nation’s highest energy burden for low-income households, while Michigan’s NTSB is taking over a “natural gas explosion” investigation after a tavern fire. Renewables Buildout: Origis Energy hit nearly 1 GW operating at its Rockhound solar complex in Texas, with more phases planned for data-center demand.

Oil & Shipping Risk: Drone attacks and renewed US-Iran tensions are keeping crude prices jumpy and tightening tanker supply, with the Caspian Pipeline Consortium halting oil loadings after two more tanker strikes near Novorossiysk and Egypt’s Damietta port confirming a drone caused fires on two gas vessels. Shell Earnings Surge: Shell reported second-quarter profit tripling to $10.8bn as Middle East disruption boosted trading and refining margins. Power & Gas Strain: Moldova urged voluntary electricity cuts after Danube flow disruptions forced reactor shutdowns at Cernavoda, while Bangladesh faced load shedding and higher generation costs after an LNG outage cut imported gas supplies sharply. Household Bills Pressure: Hawaiian Electric customers are seeing steep bill increases tied to oil-fired generation costs, and Pakistan’s petrol and diesel prices rose despite falling crude benchmarks. Policy & Transition: Michigan lawmakers moved to restrict climate lawsuit funding, while Brookfield launched a $600m Lumara platform to accelerate India’s solar, wind and storage buildout. Nuclear Push: The US DOE is considering Tennessee for a nuclear fuel-cycle partnership, aiming to support the full lifecycle and potential advanced reactor deployment. Grid Reliability: ERCOT data highlighted solar and wind covering over half of Texas power around midday, underscoring renewables’ growing role in meeting peak demand.

Middle East Supply Shock: Oil jumped back above $90 a barrel after renewed Iran–U.S. tensions, with Brent up about 7% and WTI up about 7%, as missile attacks and shipping risks returned to the headlines and U.S. crude inventories fell. Market Mood: Wall Street slid too, with the Dow down more than 1,100 points and tech weakness adding to the pressure ahead of the Fed. Egypt LNG/Shipping Risk: A reported drone strike at Egypt’s Damietta port sparked fires on gas vessels and pushed oil higher, even as Egypt denied an attack—raising fresh concerns for regional gas logistics. Canada–Europe LNG Push: Canada announced a second major LNG deal to expand sales to Europe and reduce reliance on the U.S., amid tariff fallout and renewed trade leverage debate. U.S. Nuclear Fuel Hub Bid: Louisiana was selected to begin talks with the U.S. Department of Energy on a new nuclear center, potentially covering fuel, enrichment, and recycling. Geothermal Growth in Utah: A new partnership aims to develop up to 200 MW of geothermal power near Brigham City, starting with a 10 MW phase targeted for late 2027. Data Center Power Politics: FERC approved the sale of a retired coal plant in Maryland to a data center developer, while regulators and critics warned about grid strain and power costs. Energy Security & Ukraine: Ukraine said it hit major Russian oil refineries after Zelenskyy’s U.S. talks, as both sides brace for further strikes and winter grid risks. Battery & Grid Buildout: Construction started on a large PJM battery project in Ohio, while retail electricity expansion continued in PJM. Local Disruptions: A man was arrested after a hourslong standoff at a Columbia power plant smokestack, underscoring how quickly energy sites can become public safety flashpoints.

US-Russia Sanctions Push: The US Senate cleared a key procedural step for sweeping sanctions targeting Russian oil and gas buyers, with proposed tariffs up to 100% aimed at China and India as well as Russia’s “shadow fleet.” Middle East Oil Risk: Oil prices jumped as Iran-US tensions flared again, while Iran’s IRGC Navy said it stopped three tankers in the Strait of Hormuz—raising the stakes for global supply routes. Ukraine Strikes Russian Refining: Ukraine reported a major drone strike on Russia’s Ryazan refinery, adding to fuel-supply jitters ahead of further political talks in Washington. Fed Meets as Gas Rises: The Federal Reserve is set to decide rates amid renewed inflation pressure tied to higher gas prices. Energy Security in Asia: India warned its oil and gas imports hinge on narrow chokepoints—Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb—where disruption could send prices sharply higher. Philippines Nuclear Debate: Manila’s nuclear push faces renewed local opposition to reviving the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant, while the Palace says any nuclear move would require full studies and IAEA-aligned safeguards. Clean Power Finance: Malaysia’s PM said ASEAN needs major capital to scale solar, grid upgrades and storage, and Michigan expanded incentives for communities hosting renewables. Grid vs Data Centers: Texas regulators are seeking more authority over data centers as the facilities’ power demand strains local bills and infrastructure.

Oil & Gas Markets: Oil slid for a third straight day as the US paused its campaign against Iran, easing immediate supply fears and pulling back the geopolitical risk premium; Brent fell to around $82–$84/bbl while traders weigh whether tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz will actually recover. Middle East Security: Saudi Arabia reported drone attacks on its Eastern Province oil facilities launched from Iraq by Iran-backed militias, while Yemen’s Houthis claimed they hit a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea—raising pressure on maritime routes. Europe Gas: UK and European gas prices extended declines on softer crude and hopes for US-Iran diplomacy, though analysts warn low storage and slow Middle East LNG recovery keep upside risks. US Power & Data Centers: Georgia Power broke ground on a Mt. Bowen-style buildout at Plant Bowen—1,500 MW of gas plus 500 MW of battery—explicitly tied to long-term data center contracts; meanwhile, US ex-FERC chief Neil Chatterjee warned grid stress could divert power away from households. Grid Reliability & Policy: Moldova declared a 30-day energy and water alert after diesel shortages and low Danube levels; Australia’s ministers signaled data centers must offset demand with extra renewables. Nuclear Push: The US picked Tennessee, Louisiana, Utah, Oklahoma and Idaho as potential Nuclear Lifecycle Innovation Campus hosts, while Oklahoma’s nuclear feasibility study is back in focus. Local Energy Tensions: Residents in Trotwood and other communities are pushing back on data centers over rising power costs, as states and utilities race to add capacity.

Oil & Gas Markets: Brent slid below $84 a barrel for the first time since July 17 as hopes grew for US-Iran de-escalation and Hormuz shipping stayed weak, pulling crude down more than 2% in trading. Middle East Risk to Prices: Despite the crude drop, fuel hikes are hitting consumers in the Philippines, with diesel up as much as P7.30/liter and gasoline P6.80/liter from July 28 amid renewed supply worries. Energy Security & Conflict Impacts: Iran says US strikes damaged infrastructure and cut natural gas production capacity by about 230 million cubic metres daily. Grid Stress & Renewables Curtailment: Ireland reported wind energy “lost” because the grid couldn’t carry it—highlighting the need for faster grid buildout as renewables surge. Power Outage Flashpoint: Protesters stormed Libya’s Mellitah Oil & Gas complex, shutting gas lines to power plants and raising blackout fears. Policy & Power Costs (Philippines): Senate bills would exempt electricity system loss charges from VAT and repeal energy taxes, while consumer groups warn the fixes don’t tackle deeper cost drivers. Clean Power Growth (India): Andhra Pradesh added 3.9 GW renewables in 2025-26, nearly quadruple the prior year, as approvals and investment picked up. Nuclear Debate (Philippines): President Marcos floated revisiting nuclear power as a way to lower high electricity prices, despite ongoing safety and corruption concerns around the Bataan plant. Project Watch (Cyprus): Eni took FID on the Cronos gas project, targeting first gas to market in 2028.

Middle East Supply Shock Eases (For Now): Oil slid sharply after the U.S. and Iran paused strikes, with Brent dipping below $88 and WTI falling about 6–7%, easing pressure on markets ahead of the Fed. Gulf Tensions Still Threaten Flows: Even with the pause, Houthis claimed drone attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and Saudi officials said intercepted drones launched from Iraq targeted facilities in the east and Riyadh. Energy Prices Hit Households: In the Philippines, fuel firms signaled big pump jumps tied to Middle East supply concerns, while Michigan drivers saw gas averages rise again. Policy Meets Power Reliability: The U.S. DOE issued an emergency power order for 17 states during dangerous heat, authorizing backup generation to prevent outages. Europe Methane Rules Get Flexibility: The European Commission proposed delaying penalties and clarified how importers can meet methane requirements without tracing every cargo. Nuclear Debate Returns in the Philippines: President Marcos floated revisiting nuclear power amid high electricity costs; opponents raised nuclear waste and import-dependence concerns. Local Grid Stress: Consumers Energy is weighing reduced flow through Michigan’s Hodenpyl Dam for inspections, drawing environmental pushback.

Middle East De-escalation: Oil slid more than 5–7% after a second straight night of US-Iran strike pauses, easing fears for Strait of Hormuz flows, though Red Sea shipping risks and tanker rerouting still threaten freight costs. Ukraine Energy Strikes: Ukraine’s SBU detailed week-long long-range strikes hitting Russian air defenses, logistics and energy assets, including an oil platform in the Caspian. Philippines Supply & Power Policy: In SONA, Marcos said the country secured oil from six sources to cover nearly two months despite Hormuz disruption, while also pushing a renewed nuclear energy review to cut electricity costs; separate coverage shows investors turning optimistic as crude falls. Grid Reliability: The US Energy Department ordered emergency measures for the Southwest Power Pool across 17 states to prevent heat-wave blackouts. Energy Transition Moves: Meta exited RE100 as it leans on gas-fired power for AI data centers; Dubai’s DEWA said an AI gas-turbine controller boosted output by ~28.9 MW. LPG & Consumer Pressure: Nepal’s LP Gas industry urged customers not to hoard cylinders amid a temporary reserve shortage. Renewables Financing: Vena Energy reached financial close on a $310m, 500 MWp solar project; ACEN expanded Zambales solar plus 1,660 MWh battery storage.

Middle East Supply Shock: US-Iran strikes paused for a second day, but the Strait of Hormuz is effectively frozen as Iran warns ships must follow its rules; meanwhile reports say a tanker hit a sea mine in the strait, and Iran-backed Houthis escalated attacks on Saudi oil facilities and tankers in the Red Sea, threatening exports and pushing Brent toward $100. Shipping Reroutes & Costs: Saudi crude exports shifted toward the Suez route after Bab al-Mandeb disruptions, but the workaround is slower and more expensive—raising the odds of tighter refined-product markets. Price Pressure at the Pump: With oil back near $100, gas prices are climbing again in the US (San Diego’s average up for 11 straight days; Minnesota around $4), feeding fresh inflation worries for markets. Policy & Power Planning: Philippines’ energy regulator work is moving toward a centralized auction for mid-merit natural gas capacity, while Lebanon’s PM Salam met Iraq to secure fuel supplies amid chronic electricity shortages. Energy Transition Moves: Iran inaugurated a 5MW geothermal plant from the Sabalan volcano, and India rolled out faster LPG cylinder delivery via “Indane XtraLite Now,” as Egypt and the UK discussed renewable and grid cooperation. Market Watch: Global investors are repricing inflation and rate risks as energy prices surge, with oil volatility spilling into equities and bonds.

Middle East Energy Shock: Drone strikes and air-defense activity hit Crimea’s energy infrastructure, triggering fires and power outages, while Ukraine also struck the Chornomornaftogaz facility and a drone-control relay and confirmed a strike on Russia’s Tyumen oil refinery. Oil Market Pressure: Brent is back near $100, with West Asia tensions and Strait of Hormuz disruption fears keeping prices volatile; India’s NITI Aayog says fuel prices will be revised only once crude declines are sustained. Europe Gas Security: Equinor warns Europe likely won’t reach 80% gas storage before winter as LNG competition tightens and more cargoes divert to Asia. EU Sanctions Mechanics: The EU’s new sanctions package allows member states to sell seized Russian “shadow fleet” cargoes, aiming to cut Kremlin revenues. Africa Gas Deals: ECOWAS greenlights a $25bn Nigeria–Morocco mega gas pipeline framework for construction starting in 2028. Project Updates: Egypt plans to bring a Mediterranean North Fayoum-4 gas well online (about 80 MMcf/d) with BP support; Jordan inaugurated new Aqaba natural gas stations to cut industrial energy costs. Regulation & Power: South Carolina denied reconsideration of a Colleton County gas plant approval; Western Australia is studying a new gas-fired plant as it moves to shut coal by 2030. Corporate/Finance: Capricorn Energy takeover talks heat up as a US bidder proposal emerges.

Red Sea Energy Shock: Houthis claimed missile and drone attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan and Yanbu, while the US reportedly paused new strikes on Iran for a first night in two weeks—raising fears of wider disruption across Bab el-Mandeb and Strait of Hormuz shipping. Oil Price Pressure: Brent pushed back toward $100 and analysts warn of upside risk; Barclays says crude could test $150 within three months if disruptions persist, while central banks brace for potential oil-driven inflation. Shipping Detours Cost More: With Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb threatened, Saudi exports may lean on longer routes via Egypt’s Suez Canal, adding weeks and millions in tanker costs. Regional Supply Moves: Egypt and BP plan to bring North Fayoum-4 online with about 80 million ft³/day of gas to cut import reliance. Investment & Infrastructure: Kuwait Petroleum Corp signed a $16bn lease-and-leaseback for its crude pipeline network (Project Peregrine). Grid Reliability Probe: Georgia opened a sabotage investigation after a major blackout.

Middle East Energy Security: Greek-operated Patriot air defences in Saudi Arabia intercepted two Yemen-fired ballistic missiles aimed at Yanbu oil refineries, underscoring how quickly regional conflict is feeding into energy risk. Oil Market Volatility: Brent slipped back under $100 to around $96 after a spike tied to Houthi attacks on Red Sea tankers, while analysts warn the market remains jittery as supply-route threats persist. Russia Supply Disruption: Ukraine-linked drone attacks forced Russia’s Sheskharis Black Sea terminal near Novorossiysk to suspend tanker loading, disrupting about one-fifth of seaborne crude exports. Infrastructure Finance: Kuwait Petroleum Company signed a $16bn lease-and-leaseback for its crude pipeline network with Blackstone, Brookfield and KKR, aiming to raise upfront capital for long-term production plans. Grid Reliability Debate: A leaked UK report says the national grid operator is “flying blind” on forecasting under the net-zero push, raising fears of higher bills and blackout risk. Tech vs Renewables: Meta exited a renewable energy initiative as AI-driven power demand and natural-gas data centers reshape its clean-energy approach. New Energy Supply: India began drilling the first appraisal well in the Mahanadi Offshore Basin to strengthen domestic energy security.

Oil & Gas Prices: Crude slipped back under $100 as markets weighed “diplomacy-lite” signals, but the broader risk remains high after Red Sea and Black Sea disruptions; analysts warn another month of chokepoint trouble could push Brent sharply higher, keeping pressure on pump prices. US Policy & Nuclear: Trump hailed four advanced nuclear startups hitting a July Fourth milestone, while also refusing to say whether striking Iranian bridges or power plants would be a war crime—an issue that matters for energy infrastructure risk. Clean Energy Funding Fight: The Trump administration admitted in court it canceled clean-energy grants based “solely” on whether states backed Democrats in 2024, reigniting scrutiny of politicized energy support. Grid & Resilience: The Air Force signed a 10-year energy resilience partnership with Arizona State University to expand monitoring, audits, and planning for installations. Renewables + AI Debate: A new analysis argues renewables alone won’t “clean up” AI’s power demand, warning of a feedback loop that still leaves fossil generation in the mix. Safety & Local Impacts: A gas leak in Pennsylvania led to evacuations after a contractor hit a UGI line; in Florida, police released a wanted suspect after a fatal stabbing at a Miramar gas station. EU Sanctions: The EU added Russia-linked crypto and power entities to its 21st sanctions package, including Inter RAO tied to Moldova’s Cuciurgan power plant.

Oil Shock Returns: Brent briefly topped $100 again as Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea and Iran-linked tensions raised fears for shipping and supply routes, keeping weekly gains intact even as prices pulled back. Market Fallout: The oil surge is feeding inflation worries and hitting bonds, with global yields rising and central-bank credibility tests looming; equities also slid as investors weighed AI spending concerns alongside higher crude. Chokepoints Under Strain: Analysts highlighted how Strait of Hormuz traffic is nearly shut while Bab el-Mandeb disruptions threaten another key corridor, pushing countries toward pipelines and alternative routes. Policy Response: Indonesia condemned Red Sea attacks as violations of navigation law, while Indonesia and other governments signaled efforts to cushion energy systems from trade and route shocks. Grid & Gas Moves (Asia): The Philippines said it’s securing Luzon gas-fired power supply beyond expiring contracts to avoid shortages, while Indonesia advanced a $15bn North Hub gas project and a new coal export framework that could ripple into power generation. Renewables & Storage: South Africa is set to start commercial operations at the Ummbila Emoyeni wind facility, and India’s NTPC Green commissioned the first phase of a Khavda solar expansion. Local Energy Pressure: Cyprus protests Turkey’s plan for an undersea gas pipeline to occupied north, and a proposed Eastern Kentucky gas pipeline drew opposition over safety and wildlife impacts.